USD/CHF: Trading Scenarios_05/15/2018
The dollar still dominates the foreign exchange market and continues to determine the dynamics of the pair USD / CHF. With the opening of today's trading day, the USD / CHF is trading in a narrow range near the mark 1.0005. Investors, apparently, are expecting the publication of important macro statistics for the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) inflation indicators (retail sales) for April will be published. The growth in retail sales, the main indicator of consumer spending, will lead to a strengthening of the dollar. And, conversely, a decrease in retail sales will negatively affect the dollar's quotes, which could lead to a fall in the USD / CHF. It is expected that retail sales increased in the US in April by 0.3% (the base index rose by 0.5%).
The USD / CHF keeps positive dynamics, trading in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 1.0100 mark. Nevertheless, the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily chart turned to short positions, signaling the possible beginning of the ripe descending correction.
The signal for sales will be a breakdown of the local support level of 0.9965. If this scenario develops, a further corrective decline to the support levels 0.9875 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart and the Fibonacci level of 61.8% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave from December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300), 0.9815 (EMA200 at 4 hour chart) is likely.
While USD / CHF is trading above key support level 0.9690 (EMA200 on daily and weekly charts), long-term upward dynamics persist.
A breakthrough into the zone above resistance level 1.0060 (annual highs) will create prerequisites for further growth. The targets in this case will be the resistance levels 1.0100, 1.0300.
Support levels: 0.9965, 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9745, 0.9690, 0.9640, 0.9610
Resistance levels: 1.0030, 1.0060, 1.0100, 1.0300
Buy Stop 1.0040. Stop-Loss 0.9960. Take-Profit 1.0060, 1.0100, 1.0300
Sell Stop 0.9960. Stop-Loss 1.0040. Take-Profit 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9745, 0.9690, 0.9640, 0.9610